Step 1 · Your portfolio

Run 1,000 retirements through your numbers

Same starting balance. Same withdrawal. Same average return. The market gets one random sequence per simulation. We tally the % of simulations where you survive.

Starting Balance

Today's portfolio

Year 1 Withdrawal

5% of $1M = the “4% rule”-ish

Annual COLA / Inflation

Withdrawal grows by this % yearly

Years in Retirement

Plan-to age minus start age

Avg Annual Return

Long-run expected (e.g. 60/40 ~7%)

Annual Volatility (std dev)

% — S&P 500 ~15-18%; 60/40 ~10-12%

Probability of plan success

—

Worst 10%

Bad-market path

—

Median (middle 50%)

Typical path

—

Best 10%

Good-market path

—

How to read this

The dark gray band is the middle 80% of all 1,000 simulations — the realistic range of where your portfolio could end up. The green line is the median (the “most likely” outcome). Failures (paths where balance hit $0) are not redrawn; they pull the bottom band toward zero.

Anything below 80% success is considered fragile by most retirement researchers. 90%+ is the comfort zone. If you're below 80%, the levers that move the needle most are: (1) reduce withdrawal rate, (2) delay Social Security, (3) shift some portfolio into a guaranteed-income floor (annuity / bond ladder) so the market doesn't have to do all the work.

The 4% rule, examined. “4% of starting balance, adjusted for inflation, for 30 years” gave a ~95% success rate in U.S. historical backtests. Real-world today: starting valuations matter. Plug in your real numbers above — the answer is rarely the same as the textbook rule.

Want this run on your actual portfolio mix?

Hans will pull your real positions, plug in actual historical sequences (not just random draws), and show you which 10-year periods would have caused failure. Free 30-minute walkthrough, no products sold.