Same average return. Different order. Wildly different retirement.
Two retirees average 7% returns over 30 years and withdraw the same amount. One ends with $2M. The other runs out at age 78. The only difference is which years lost money first.
Pure compound-interest math. Educational only — not financial advice.
We serve anyone navigating Social Security and retirement income decisions, including those without a financial advisor. Free, educational, no products sold.
Step 1 · Your numbers
Tell us about your retirement
Three identical portfolios go through the same 30 years of returns. The only difference: which year the bad returns hit. Watch what happens.
Today's portfolio
Living expenses, year 1 of retirement
% increase to withdrawal each year
Plan-to age minus current age
The mean — ALL three scenarios share this
How deep the down years are
The hidden tax of sequence risk
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Worst order
Bad Years First
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No volatility
Constant Return
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Best order
Bad Years Last
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What this actually means
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The lesson: The average return doesn't fund your retirement — your specific sequence does. If the first 5-10 years are bad, withdrawals compound the loss faster than future good years can recover. This is why most retirement income planning starts with protecting the first decade.
Want this with your portfolio numbers?
Hans will run your real account balances through 100+ historical sequences and walk through which years carry the most risk for you. Free 30-minute call, no products sold. This is free educational math help from a 501(c)(3) nonprofit.