Under the 2026 Trustees Report, the combined Social Security trust funds can pay full scheduled benefits until the third quarter of 2034, and after that ongoing income covers about 83% of scheduled benefits, not zero (Social Security Trustees, A Summary of the 2026 Annual Reports, checked October 14, 2026).
What the Trustees actually projected in 2026
Each year the Social Security Trustees publish a report on the trust funds. The 2026 report says the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund, which pays retirement and survivor checks, can pay 100% of scheduled benefits until the fourth quarter of 2032. After that, ongoing income can pay about 78% of scheduled benefits, declining to 62% by 2100 (2026 OASDI Trustees Report, Highlights, checked October 14, 2026).
If the retirement and disability funds were combined (OASDI), full benefits could be paid until the third quarter of 2034, then about 83%, declining to 65% by 2100 (Summary of the 2026 Annual Reports, checked October 14, 2026). The Trustees note the two funds could not actually be combined without a change in the law.
So "running out" does not mean the checks stop. It means the reserve runs dry and the program pays what payroll taxes and other income bring in. The gap is real: the Trustees estimate it would take a 25.2% cut to all benefits starting in 2026, or raising the payroll tax from 12.40% to 16.65%, to close it for 75 years (2026 Trustees Report, Highlights, checked October 14, 2026).
Congress has fixed this before
This has happened before. The Social Security Amendments of 1983 were signed on April 20, 1983. They raised the full retirement age to 67 in two stages, made up to half of benefits taxable above $25,000 of income for a single filer and $32,000 for a married couple, and moved up scheduled payroll tax increases (SSA Historian, Summary of P.L. 98-21, checked October 14, 2026).
The 2026 Trustees Report calls those amendments the largest single change in its history table: the long-range balance went from -1.82% of taxable payroll in the 1982 report to +0.02% in the 1983 report (2026 Trustees Report, full text, checked October 14, 2026).
Notice how the 1983 retirement age change was phased in. SSA's summary says workers born in 1938 were the first group affected, decades after the law passed (same SSA source). Nobody can promise what the next fix looks like. But history suggests changes are usually phased in, not dropped overnight on people already collecting.
What claiming at 62 costs, for life
If your full retirement age (FRA) is 67, which applies to anyone born in 1960 or later, claiming at 62 cuts your monthly check by about 30%, permanently (SSA, Starting Your Retirement Benefits Early, checked October 14, 2026). Waiting past FRA adds 8% a year until 70 (SSA, Delayed Retirement Credits, checked October 14, 2026). That is a 124% check at 70.
The survivor cut. When the higher earner dies, the widow or widower can get up to 100% of the deceased spouse's benefit at their own full retirement age for survivor benefits (SSA, What you could get from Survivor benefits, checked October 14, 2026). If the deceased claimed early, the survivor check is limited to the larger of the deceased's reduced amount or 82.5% of their full benefit (SSA POMS RS 00615.320, effective December 14, 2023). An early claim can shrink a widow's income for decades.
The earnings test surprise. If you claim before FRA and keep working, Social Security withholds $1 for every $2 you earn above $24,480 in 2026. In the year you reach FRA, it is $1 for every $3 above $65,160, counting only months before FRA. For 2027 those limits are $25,560 and $67,920 (SSA, Exempt Amounts Under the Earnings Test, checked October 14, 2026). Withheld benefits are not lost: SSA raises your check at FRA to account for them (same source). But the cash you counted on does not arrive.
Cost-of-living adjustments (COLAs). Each COLA is a percentage of your check, based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) in the third quarter. The COLA announced for checks paid in January 2027 is 3.6% (SSA, Latest Cost-of-Living Adjustment, checked October 14, 2026). A bigger base check gets a bigger raise in dollars, every year.
Who uses the claim-now line, and why
The line tends to appear in two places. One is the free-meal retirement seminar. A joint review by the SEC, the North American Securities Administrators Association (NASAA) and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) of 110 examinations found that seminars billed as "educational" were intended to lead to product sales, and that 57% of the examinations found advertising or sales materials that may have been misleading or exaggerated (SEC, NASAA and FINRA, Protecting Senior Investors, September 2007).
The other is a product pitch built on the fear. "Social Security is going broke, so take it now and let your savings go into something guaranteed," or "take it early and invest the checks." The pitch moves the decision away from your health, your spouse and your taxes, and toward a sale.
None of this is illegal. Worry about the trust fund is reasonable. Using that worry to rush a permanent, irreversible choice is a fear tactic, and it helps to recognize it.
When claiming early can make sense
Claiming at 62 is the right call for some people. It can make sense if your health is poor or your family history points to a shorter life. It can make sense if you are single, have no spouse depending on your record, and do not expect to reach your early 80s. It can make sense if you have little or no other savings and the alternative is high-interest debt or going without.
In a couple, the lower earner claiming earlier may cost less than the higher earner claiming early, because the survivor keeps only the larger of the two checks. The question is whose check, not whether Social Security will exist.
Before deciding, get your own numbers from your my Social Security account at ssa.gov, run them in our Social Security claiming calculator, and if you want a second opinion, ask a fee-only fiduciary or a tax professional who does not sell products. This page is education, not advice for your situation.
A plain example with numbers: 62 vs 67 vs 70
Hypothetical: a married couple, both age 62 and born in 1964, with about $850,000 saved. The higher earner has a full benefit (primary insurance amount) of $2,800 a month at 67. The other spouse's own benefit is $1,200. All figures are in today's dollars, before COLAs and Medicare premiums.
| Higher earner claims at | Monthly check | Survivor's check later | Check if cut to 78% | Survivor if cut to 78% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 62 (70% of full) | $1,960 | $2,310 | $1,529 | $1,802 |
| 67 (100%) | $2,800 | $2,800 | $2,184 | $2,184 |
| 70 (124%) | $3,472 | $3,472 | $2,708 | $2,708 |
Arithmetic: $2,800 x 70% = $1,960; $2,800 x 124% = $3,472. If the higher earner claimed at 62 and dies first, the survivor (at survivor full retirement age) gets the larger of $1,960 or 82.5% x $2,800 = $2,310. The 78% columns apply the 2026 Trustees' OASI payable estimate evenly to every check, as a simple illustration; Congress has not decided how any shortfall would be handled.
Two things stand out. First, a cut would not spare the early claimer: $1,960 x 78% = $1,529, while the 70 claimer's cut check is still $2,708. Second, the break-even does not move. The 62 claimer collects $1,960 x 96 months = $188,160 before 70. The 70 claimer gets $1,512 more a month, so it takes $188,160 / $1,512 = about 124 months to catch up, near age 80 and 5 months. Apply the same 78% to both and the ratio, and the break-even age, stay the same. The widow's check differs by $3,472 - $2,310 = $1,162 a month, or $13,944 a year, for as long as the survivor lives.
Red flags
- "Social Security will be gone by 2034": the 2026 Trustees project about 83% of scheduled benefits still payable after combined reserves run out, not zero.
- A deadline ("claim before the cuts") with no mention that claiming at 62 cuts your own check about 30% for life.
- Advice on when to claim that never asks about your health, your spouse's age or who would be the survivor.
- A claiming recommendation delivered at a free meal, followed by a request for a one-on-one meeting about your savings.
- "Take Social Security early and put your savings into our guaranteed plan" as one package.
- No mention of the earnings test when you plan to keep working before full retirement age.
- A break-even chart that ignores the survivor benefit for a married couple.
- Old trust fund numbers presented as current, with no report year or date.
- Pressure to sign transfer or product paperwork the same day you discuss Social Security.
- A claim that early claimers will be "grandfathered" from cuts, with no law cited.
Questions to ask before you sign
- Which Trustees Report year are your numbers from, and what does it say is payable after depletion?
- How much smaller is my check at 62 than at my full retirement age, in dollars?
- If I die first, what would my spouse's survivor check be if I claim at 62, at 67 and at 70?
- Do I plan to work before full retirement age, and how much would the earnings test withhold?
- What is my break-even age, and does it change if benefits are cut evenly?
- What does my health and family history suggest about how long I will need income?
- Which of us should claim first, the higher earner or the lower earner?
- Are you paid anything if I move savings into a product as part of this plan, and how much?
- How does claiming earlier or later change how much of my Social Security is taxed?
- Where can I check these numbers myself, such as my Social Security statement at ssa.gov?
Read This Before You Sign
A one-page checklist: the red flags in annuity and indexed universal life (IUL) sales, and the questions to ask before you sign anything. A Social Security claiming checklist: the trust fund facts, survivor math and questions to ask before you file. We’ll email it to you.
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Sources
- Social Security Trustees: A Summary of the 2026 Annual Reports (checked October 14, 2026)
- Social Security Trustees: The 2026 OASDI Trustees Report, Highlights (checked October 14, 2026)
- SSA: Starting Your Retirement Benefits Early (checked October 14, 2026)
- SSA: Delayed Retirement Credits (checked October 14, 2026)
- SSA: Exempt Amounts Under the Earnings Test (checked October 14, 2026)
- SSA: Latest Cost-of-Living Adjustment (checked October 14, 2026)
- SSA POMS RS 00615.320: Reduced widow(er) benefit limit (effective December 14, 2023)
- SSA: What you could get from Survivor benefits (checked October 14, 2026)
- SSA Historian: Summary of the Social Security Amendments of 1983 (signed April 20, 1983)
- SEC, NASAA and FINRA: Protecting Senior Investors, Free Lunch Sales Seminars (September 2007)
The Retirement Literacy Foundation is a 501(c)(3) public charity. This page is general education, not tax, legal or investment advice. Nothing is sold here, no product is recommended, and RLF accepts no funding from financial companies. Rules and figures change; each one above shows its source and date. Check anything you plan to act on with your state insurance department or a qualified professional who is not paid on the product.