2027 Social Security COLA
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How the 2027 COLA estimate is calculated Estimate
The COLA is set by law. Social Security compares the average Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) for July, August and September of this year with the same three months of last year, and rounds to the nearest tenth of a percent.
| CPI-W (Bureau of Labor Statistics) | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| July | 316.349 | 327.104 |
| August | 317.306 | 328.481 |
| September | 318.139 | not yet released (out October 14) |
| Third-quarter average | 317.265 | 328.022 if September equals August |
328.022 divided by 317.265 is a 3.39% increase, which rounds to 3.4%. If September prices rise 0.3% from August, the figure becomes about 3.5%. Two of the three months are already in, so the final COLA is very likely to land between 3.4% and 3.6%. For comparison, the Social Security Trustees assumed 2.4% back in June 2026, and outside estimates from The Senior Citizens League (3.8%) and independent analyst Mary Johnson (3.7%) run a little higher.
What the 2027 COLA means for a $2,000 check
| 2026 | 2027 | |
|---|---|---|
| Monthly benefit before Medicare | $2,000.00 | $2,068.00 (+3.4% Estimate) |
| Part B premium taken out | $202.90 | $209.50 Projected |
| Deposited each month | $1,797.10 | $1,858.50 |
The COLA adds $68.00 a month, but the Part B premium rises $6.60, so the deposit grows by $61.40 a month, or about $737 a year. If you pay IRMAA, the premium increase is larger and more of the raise disappears; see the 2027 IRMAA brackets. If you are not on Medicare yet, you keep the full increase.
2027 earnings test limits
If you claim before full retirement age and keep working, Social Security temporarily holds back benefits once your wages pass a limit. The limits are adjusted every year with the same announcement as the COLA.
| Situation | 2026 limit | 2027 limit | What is held back |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under full retirement age all year | $24,480/yr ($2,040/mo) Official | $25,200/yr Projected | $1 for every $2 over |
| The year you reach full retirement age (months before your birthday month) | $65,160/yr ($5,430/mo) Official | $67,200/yr Projected | $1 for every $3 over |
| Social Security wage base (maximum taxable earnings) | $184,500 Official | $190,200 Projected | No payroll tax above this |
2027 limits: 2026 Trustees Report projection.
Withheld benefits are not lost. Once you reach full retirement age, Social Security recalculates your benefit to credit the months it held back. The limit stops applying in the month you reach full retirement age, which is 67 for anyone born in 1960 or later; 2027 is the first year that group reaches it. Try the earnings test calculator with your own wages.
Taxes on benefits: the thresholds that never change Set by law
| Filing status | Up to 50% of benefits taxable above | Up to 85% taxable above |
|---|---|---|
| Single | $25,000 | $34,000 |
| Married filing jointly | $32,000 | $44,000 |
These "provisional income" thresholds were set in 1983 and 1993 and are not indexed to inflation, so each COLA pushes a few more retirees into paying tax on part of their benefits. Provisional income is your other income plus tax-exempt interest plus half of your Social Security. The 2025 tax law did not end tax on Social Security; it added a separate $6,000 deduction for people 65 and older through 2028 (see the 2027 tax brackets for retirees).
Social Security COLA history, by year paid Official
Each COLA is announced in October and first shows up in the January check. This table lists the year the higher benefit was paid.
| Benefits paid in | COLA |
|---|---|
| 2027 | about 3.4% (likely range 3.4% to 3.6%) Estimate |
| 2026 | 2.8% |
| 2025 | 2.5% |
| 2024 | 3.2% |
| 2023 | 8.7% |
| 2022 | 5.9% |
| 2021 | 1.3% |
| 2020 | 1.6% |
| 2019 | 2.8% |
| 2018 | 2.0% |
| 2017 | 0.3% |
| 2016 | 0.0% |
| 2015 | 1.7% |
| 2014 | 1.5% |
| 2013 | 1.7% |
| 2012 | 3.6% |
The ten COLAs paid from 2017 through 2026 averaged 3.1%. Source: Social Security Administration, Office of the Chief Actuary.
When the 2027 COLA shows up
- October 14, 2026 (expected): the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases September inflation data and Social Security announces the 2027 COLA, the new earnings test limits and the wage base. Social Security has said only "October 2026"; the 14th is the inflation release date.
- Early December 2026: your COLA notice is posted to your my Social Security account (Message Center) and mailed. It shows your new benefit and the Medicare premium that will be taken out.
- December 31, 2026: Supplemental Security Income (SSI) recipients get the first higher payment, because January 1 is a holiday.
- January 2027: Social Security recipients get the first higher payment, on their usual payment day.
The COLA applies to everyone receiving benefits, including retirement, spousal, survivor and disability benefits. If you have not claimed yet, it still raises the benefit you will get later: once you turn 62, your future benefit gets every COLA whether or not you have filed.
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Why the Medicare premium matters to your raise
For most people on Medicare, the Part B premium is deducted from the Social Security payment before it reaches the bank. When the premium rises, part of the COLA never shows up. Two rules soften or sharpen that:
- Hold harmless. If the Part B increase would make your net check smaller than last year, the law limits your premium increase to the dollar amount of your COLA, so your deposit does not go down. This protects people with small benefits who have Part B taken from their check.
- IRMAA. Higher-income retirees pay more for Part B and Part D, and the hold-harmless rule does not cover them. A couple in a surcharge bracket can see a large share of the raise taken back. See the 2027 IRMAA brackets.
What to check before the announcement
- Your benefit amount. Look up your current gross benefit (before Medicare) in your my Social Security account so you can check the new figure when it arrives.
- Tax withholding. A bigger benefit can mean a bit more of it is taxable. If you have tax withheld from Social Security with Form W-4V, the percentage applies to the new amount automatically.
- The earnings test, if you are working. If you claimed early and still work, the new limit tells you how much you can earn in 2027 before benefits are held back. The earnings test calculator estimates the amount withheld.
- Income-tested programs. A higher benefit can affect eligibility for programs with income limits, such as Medicare Savings Programs, Extra Help with drug costs, or SNAP.
Sources
- Social Security Administration, 2026 COLA fact sheet (2.8% COLA, 2026 earnings test limits and wage base)
- Social Security Administration, Office of the Chief Actuary, Cost-of-living adjustment history
- Social Security Administration, Office of the Chief Actuary, How the COLA is calculated
- Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index (CPI-W, July and August 2026)
- Social Security Administration, 2026 Trustees Report release (June 9, 2026; projected 2027 earnings test and wage base)
- CMS Office of the Actuary, 2026 Medicare Trustees Report (projected 2027 Part B premium)
- IRS, Tax deductions for working Americans and seniors (senior deduction; Social Security still taxable)
Checked October 4, 2026. The 2027 COLA is our estimate until Social Security announces it; the 2027 earnings test limits and wage base are projections from the 2026 Trustees Report.
Get the official 2027 COLA the day Social Security announces it
The announcement is expected October 14, 2026. We send one short email that day with the official COLA, the new earnings test limits and what it means for your check. Add your mobile if you also want a text.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the 2027 Social Security COLA?
It has not been announced yet. Based on official inflation data for July and August 2026, the 2027 COLA is on track to be about 3.4% (likely range 3.4% to 3.6%). Social Security will announce it in October 2026, expected October 14.
When will the 2027 COLA be announced?
Social Security says October 2026. It is expected on October 14, 2026, the day the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases September inflation data, which is the last number the formula needs.
When will I see the 2027 COLA in my check?
The increase applies to benefits for December 2026, which are paid in January 2027. Supplemental Security Income (SSI) recipients see it on December 31, 2026, because the January 1 payment date falls on a holiday.
How much will a $2,000 Social Security check go up in 2027?
At a 3.4% COLA, a $2,000 benefit becomes $2,068.00, about $68 more a month. If Medicare Part B is taken out of your check, the projected premium rises from $202.90 to $209.50, so the net deposit goes up about $61.40.
Does the Medicare premium increase eat the COLA?
Part of it. The projected 2027 Part B premium of $209.50 is $6.60 higher than 2026. For most people the COLA is larger, but higher earners who pay IRMAA can lose much more of the raise.
What is the 2027 earnings test limit?
For people under full retirement age all year, the limit is $25,200/yr (projected), up from $24,480/yr ($2,040/mo) in 2026. In the year you reach full retirement age it is $67,200/yr (projected). Social Security confirms both with the COLA announcement.
Are the Social Security tax thresholds going up in 2027?
No. The $25,000 and $34,000 (single) and $32,000 and $44,000 (married filing jointly) provisional income thresholds are fixed in law and have never been adjusted for inflation.
Want to run these numbers for your own situation?
The Retirement Literacy Foundation runs free retirement classes across Southern California on Social Security timing, taxes in retirement, and how to turn savings into income. No products are sold at our classes.
The Retirement Literacy Foundation is a 501(c)(3) non-profit. This guide is general financial education, not individualized investment, tax, or insurance advice. Figures are illustrative and change with income thresholds and your personal situation. Consider speaking with a licensed professional before making decisions.
Hans Goldstein
Founder & Executive Director · Retirement Literacy Foundation, a 501(c)(3) non-profit
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